조회 수 3586 추천 수 0 댓글 0


Prev이전 문서

Next다음 문서

크게 작게 위로 아래로 댓글로 가기 인쇄


Prev이전 문서

Next다음 문서

크게 작게 위로 아래로 댓글로 가기 인쇄

The US is preparing to attack North Korea, according to Geopolitical Futures founder George Friedman — setting the stage for a difficult, messy war with potentially catastrophic consequences.

Speaking Monday to a rapt audience at the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference in Orlando, Friedman said that while it was unlikely the US would take action before President Donald Trump returns home at the weekend, North Korea's actions appeared to have "offered the US no alternative" to a clash.

According to Geopolitical Futures analysis, evidence is mounting that the enmity between the two is escalating to a point where war is inevitable.

Friedman said that on May 20, the USS Carl Vinson supercarrier and USS Ronald Reagan were both within striking distance of North Korea.

Additionally, more than 100 F-16 aircraft are conducting daily exercises in the area, a tactic that foreshadowed the beginning of Desert Storm in 1991.

F-35 aircraft have also been deployed to the area, and US government representatives are expected to brief Guam on civil defense, terrorism, and Korea on May 31.

All of these strategic moves telegraph one outcome — conflict.

Friedman's decision to make public his focus on North Korea comes days after the secretive state's latest ballistic missile launch. The UN Security Council condemned its "highly destabilizing behavior and flagrant and provocative defiance" of the organization.

Seoul in the crosshairs

Problems with any conflict are myriad. The 25 million people of the Seoul metropolitan area lie in reach of what Friedman called a "stunning mass of [North Korean] artillery." Any strike on North Korea would likely result in a retributive attack on Seoul.

"We cannot afford the kind of casualties this will create," Friedman said, adding that the US needed to neutralize the artillery by strategic bombardment.

A second problem for the US is that any conflict would necessarily rely on imperfect intelligence, and the effect of incorrect information could take a devastating human toll.

Friedman also called attention to Andersen Air Force Base in Guam, saying that a North Korean attack on the base would be Kim Jong Un's only chance at delaying the war.

Pointedly branding the North Korean elites "neither crazy nor stupid," Friedman said they had "homicidal, but not suicidal tendencies."

"We are facing a war that is not simple," he said, adding that Russia and China were both washing their hands of the matter.

Aircraft carrierSailors aboard the US Navy Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson in the western Pacific Ocean. Reuters/ U.S. Navy/Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Sean M. Castellano/Handout

An undeclared war?

In off-the-cuff remarks following his speech at the SIC 2017, Friedman said a conflict would mark the beginning of another undeclared war.

"We have not declared war on a country since World War II, a terrible mistake morally and constitutionally, but also practically," he said. "Getting Congress to declare war binds both sides together and puts responsibility on all."

Nonetheless, he said, North Korea is America's problem to bear.

"This is how it's going to be for America over the next decade, because we are the major global power and that power is of the sort that doesn't disappear very quickly," he said. "We are the only country in the world with a global military capability.

"There is no other power that can conceivably — and I include the Chinese in this — take effective military action against the North Koreans to stop a nuclear program," he continued. "That means it's either the US [takes action] or North Korea has a nuclear weapon."

Systemic war will come to the 21st century

Rumors of the demise of America's hegemonic status are greatly exaggerated, according to Friedman. A consequence of its unparalleled power is that it will continue to "be involved in all sorts of miserable wars every five to 10 years. It's partly because no one else wants to do it and partly because we can afford to and partly because of long-term threats."

As for the remainder of the 21st century, Friedman was pragmatic.

"Every century has its systemic wars," he said. "The odds that the 21st century will be the first not to have it are slim to none."

For the foreseeable future, it seems, the US's reluctant sheriff's hat will remain in place.

Get live updates from the sold-out 2017 Strategic Investment Conference.

Don't miss out as some of the world's leading asset managers, geopolitical experts, and Federal Reserve insiders, including John Mauldin, George Friedman, and Ian Bremmer, discuss how to assemble a winning portfolio for the Paradigm Shifts now destabilizing the world. Tune in here.


List of Articles
번호 제목 날짜 조회 수
178 트럼프 "北 미사일 발사 무모한 행동…더 고립될 것" 경고 2017.07.29 2150
177 美 “사드 ‘탄도미사일’ 요격 시험 성공” 2017.07.12 2374
176 "웜비어 북한서 심각한 뇌손상"…분노한 미국 2017.06.16 3081
175 미 국무부, ICBM 발사 위협 북한에 모든 수단으로 대응 2017.06.14 3131
174 매티스 美 국방장관 "北과 군사충돌은 재앙적 전쟁…사정권에 대한민국 수도 서울 있다" 2017.05.29 3560
» GEORGE FRIEDMAN: A US attack on North Korea is imminent 2017.05.24 3586
172 美 민주 의원 64명, 트럼프에 "北 선제공격 안돼" 서한 2017.05.24 3806
171 미국, 북한 도발에 대응 '토마호크 300발' 조준 완료 2017.05.18 3747
170 유엔 안보리, 北추가제재 합의 실패…중·러 소극적 2017.05.17 4015
169 랜섬웨어 공격 '북한 배후설'…"北해킹단 사이버지문 발견" 2017.05.16 4313
168 중국 언론, 사드 장비 반입에 “새 정부 선택권 박탈“ 비난 2017.04.26 4135
167 美국무부 "北 기다리는건 끝…빠르게 비핵화 또는 동결" 2017.04.26 4042
166 중국 선박, 이제는 남중국해서 '난파선 도둑질'까지 2017.04.23 3909
165 日 자위대 호위함 2척 출항…칼 빈슨 항모와 공동훈련 2017.04.21 4085
164 中, 공군·크루즈 미사일 탑재 전투기에 '초비상 경계령'…트럼프 말한 "드문 움직임"? 2017.04.21 4112
163 트럼프, 멜라니아와 결혼식 올린 팜비치 교회서 부활절 예배 2017.04.17 4014
162 美 "北 중거리 미사일 발사 4~5초 후 실패…놀랍지 않다" 2017.04.16 4286
161 “美 中이 북한 문제 해결 못하면 ‘다음 단계’ 진행” 2017.04.14 4555
160 일본, 긴장 고조 한반도서 자국민 긴급철수 준비태세 돌입 2017.04.12 4740
159 시진핑,트럼프에 "북핵 평화적해결 견지…美와 소통·협조 희망" 2017.04.12 4487
Board Pagination Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ... 12 Next
/ 12